GBDC: A Dividend Hike For This 10.3% Yielding BDC

This is an extract from an earlier article at Systematic Income Premium.

In this article, we catch up on the quarterly results from the Business Development Company Golub Capital (GBDC). GBDC is currently trading at a dividend yield of 10.3% and a valuation of 87%. The company delivered a positive total NAV return for the quarter along with a 10% dividend hike. 

The company’s portfolio has a higher-quality focus with a 94% first-lien allocation – well above the 78% sector average. It is similar to the broader sector in focusing on less-cyclical sectors like software and healthcare. The portfolio is well diversified with over 330 investments – more than double the sector average. 

Quarter Update

GBDC NAV fell 1.7% which was slightly below the sector average level. Total NAV return for the quarter came in at a positive 0.3%. The company delivered a positive total NAV return each of the three quarters this year. 

The drop in the NAV was primarily due to unrealized losses – a common theme we have seen across the sector – as the following NAV bridge shows. 

Income Dynamics

Net new investments were negative as sales/repayments exceeded new fundings. This is not atypical of the sector but is somewhat unexpected since a tighter money environment normally leads companies to borrow money in order to ensure they can operate through a tough period. It’s very likely that a relatively high-quality portfolio that GBDC features along with a still decent macro environment is causing many companies to turn away additional financing particularly at currently high levels of interest. 

Leverage ticked down marginally in line with a drop in net new investments. 

Yield on assets jumped sharply while interest expense increased at around half the rate which is in line with the roughly 100% / 50% floating-rate asset vs. floating-rate debt profile of the company. This should continue to support net income in the medium term. What is also interesting from the chart is that the Q3 calendar quarter was the first quarter that truly reflected the rise in short-term rates we have seen this year. This kind of delayed reaction is due in part to the income valley, as we call it, or the slight initial drop in net income when rates moved towards 1% due to the presence of Libor floors on the asset side of the balance sheet. It is also due to the significant delay with which higher short-term rates actually feed into income given the 3-month typical reset period that loans feature. The sharp jump in asset yields over the past quarter is what makes us optimistic about further large yield gains in the coming quarters.  

Portfolio Quality

Non-accruals remained modest at 1.3% at fair-value. 

Portfolio rating has been stable with nearly all investments in the top 3 grades. The weighted-average portfolio quality grade has worsened very marginally in the last couple of quarters. 

Valuation And Return Profile

As the following chart shows GBDC has tended to trade at a higher valuation than the broader sector until the COVID shock. 

As many investors know, the company stumbled in 2020 due to the rights offering it undertook in April of 2020 and completed in May of 2020 which shaved off around 7.8% from the NAV at the time. The rights offering was done at 92.5% of the weighted-average price during the offering period and ended up being at $9.17 per share which was an amazing 37% below the Q1-2020 NAV and almost 40% below where the Q2-2020 NAV would have been without the rights offering. The key point is that the company underperformed in 2020 not due to a bad underwriting process but because it was more conservative that was warranted. In our view, this one-off driver of underperformance is not reflective of the company’s underwriting strength and ability to deliver value to investors. Over the 10Y period GBDC has generated total NAV returns exceeding the sector average. 

Our take is that GBDC remains an attractive option for more defensive BDC investors due to its lower fee structure, lower equity allocation, strong portfolio quality and an attractive valuation. Its NAV should be better protected relative to the sector in the current sell-off given its relatively low equity exposure and first-lien focus. At a valuation 4% below the sector average, GBDC looks cheap.

Check out more in-depth and timely commentary as well as Income Portfolios and interactive Investor Tools at our Premium service.

ADS Analytics LLC / Systematic Income provides opinions regarding securities and other related topics on an impersonal basis; therefore no consideration is made towards your individual financial circumstances.

All content presented here is not to be regarded as investment advice or constitute a client / advisor relationship. It is for general informational purpose only.

Trading securities involves risk, so you must always use your own best judgment when trading securities. You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading you choose to undertake. You are completely responsible for making any investment decisions.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.